Tuesday, 10 March 2009

Blog post 100

Since transferring my blog to this open pssst... blog last September, Google informs me that this is my 100th post, so now is the time for a quick review......

According to the statistics that I have, the most popular posts relate to my comments on the NHS NPfIT projects (greatly helped by a Computer Weekly article and a number of other blogs that linked to one of my posts), with Capita’s acquisition of IBS coming a close second, and the Constellation/Gladstone battle an easy third.

The most controversial posts have related to the use of Open Source, where this blog has followed and commented on both the Tories' and then the Government's attempts to adopt Open Source -
Conservative’s move to Open Source – a major mistake? and Open Source – who poached whose policy? It would appear that several of my readers fervently support Open Source (whilst some others, just as fervently, oppose it).

The blog has received many hits from search engines based on “FTSE predictions”, where in an Off-Topic post I’ve
predicted that the FTSE100 will drop to 3,200 – most probably around April – followed by a dead cat bounce, and then a return to around 3,300 by the middle of the year, with a recovery starting in September leading to the FTSE100 rising to around 4,200 by December. The FTSE100 seems to be on the way to 3,200, but now I’m beginning to doubt my optimistic prediction of a return to 4,200 by the end of the year.....

I’ll also point out that, as long ago as last September, I
predicted that many bank shares would be all but worthless, and that nationalisation was on the cards. In practice I’ve been proven right – bank shares have plunged by 90% since then (Barclays 85%) and both RBS and Lloyds/HBOS are nationalised in all but name – whilst I still suspect that Barclays will follow them in the fullness of time.....

On other predictions, this blog:

Successfully predicted a bid for Gladstone -
After Anite and IBS – where’s the next big acquisition? . And successfully predicted the failure of that bid - Decision time for Gladstone shareholders.

Followed the Northgate/Anite and Capita/IBS acquisitions and correctly predicted that the Northgate/Anite acquisition would not be referred to the Competition Commission, but that the Capita/IBS acquisition would be referred -
Capita's acquistion of IBS is referred

Was one of the first to predict huge losses for Local Authorities in Iceland, and to identify the use of Anti terror legislation by the UK Government -
Councils lose £0.5billion in Iceland terror attack?

However, I will own up to have predicted the demise of HIPs by this March (
HIPS will go - but when...) – this is now unlikely; although I still believe HIPs will go, I think this will now not happen until there is a change of Government. Also, although I still think that the PIGS will fly the EU this year, I wonder if the I is now for Ireland rather than Italy (P being Portugal, G Greece and S Spain).

I will aim to continue giving predictions where possible, mostly aimed at the market for, and companies in, the supply of software/services to the UK Public Sector; but as I have noted before, please remember that this blog does not aim to offer investment advice and you are advised to DYOR (do your own research) before you make any investments yourself.

In response to requests from readers, I will aim to continue comments on project management issues – typically general advice initiated by a significant project which is in the public domain (e.g. NPfIT or
FiReControl), or prompted by similarities with other areas, e.g. When Project Managers and Directors disagree......

Finally, I’d like to thank those readers who have sent me, some anonymously, items of interest, areas for investigation and, in some cases, good gossip (some of which I just can’t pass on......). I always welcome any suggestions and/or ideas for topics to cover in the next 100 posts – and all your comments. I maintain strict confidentiality on all such suggestions/comments and will not attribute them to the author without prior approval. Please e-mail me at

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